“I think from the Republicans’ side of things, because they see themselves as ahead at the moment, they have a very strong incentive to not rock the boat,” says Nick Beauchamp, Northeastern professor of political science
The assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania Saturday night will loom large over the Republican National Convention that kicks off on Monday in Milwaukee, a Northeastern political expert says.
Republicans will leverage the shooting over the four-day event, and try to capitalize on Trump’s lead and cast him as a sympathetic figure and “fighter of oppressive forces,” says Nick Beauchamp, associate professor of political science at Northeastern University.
“I think from the Republicans’ side of things, because they see themselves as ahead at the moment, they have a very strong incentive to not rock the boat,” says Beauchamp.
“They have an incentive now to do the same thing that the Biden team is doing, which is carefully going through their speeches to make sure there are no implicit calls for violence,” he adds. “They want to portray themselves as the victims.”
Trump will accept his party’s presidential nomination at the convention.
Gunshots went off just a few minutes as Trump was speaking at a campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania, Saturday. Trump reached for his right ear after the shots were fired and the Secret Service immediately surrounded him as he went to the ground.
Before he was escorted off the stage by the Secret Service, Trump pumped his fist and shouted out to the crowd, blood dripping from his ear and visible on his face.
Who was the suspected shooter?
The alleged shooter was killed; and one attendee died and two others critically injured. The suspected shooter fired from “an elevated position outside of the rally venue,” the Secret Service said, and used an AR-15 style rifle.
In a statement early Sunday, the FBI said it had identified the suspected shooter as Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year old man from Bethel Park, Pennsylvania.
Crooks was a registered Republican, though in 2021 at the age of 17 he donated $15 to ActBlue, a politician fundraising platform “for serving left-leaning and Democratic nonprofits and politicians,” according to the organization’s website.
Authorities said they found explosives in Crook’s vehicle, which was parked near the rally, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Photos of the president taken while he was pumping his fist after the shooting are being posted on social media, and being printed on merchandise, such as T-shirts and coffee mugs.
Incident won’t sway anti-Trumpers
Beauchamp says the incident will embolden Trump’s base, but it will not significantly sway the opinions of those who oppose the president and his policies.
“It’s clear the Trump supporters are going to be enthused about this, just as they were enthused by his mug shot and the trial itself, which was seen as the underdog fighting the system,” Beauchamp says. “There is hardly anything more exemplary of that than the photo, even though of course, we don’t know [much] about the shooter at the moment.”
What about swing voters?
Beauchamp isn’t convinced it could significantly change their views, or have a significant impact on the polls.
“In a sense, this is already playing up to Trump’s pre-existing image as a fighter against oppressive forces,” he says. “It seems unlikely that is going to win them over, particularly a few days after things have gone by.”
Misinformation in the aftermath
David Lazer, a distinguished professor of political science and computer/information science at Northeastern, says in the past few days there has been a large swath of misinformation being shared online.
“I think we’ve certainly seen that in aces just from peeking at social media,” he says.
Costas Panagopoulos, Northeastern University distinguished professor of political science, said the incident is a reminder that “there is no place for political violence in our country, and also of just how divided the country is along partisan and ideological lines.”
“In America, we don’t solve our political problems using violence,” Panagopoulos said. “We do so at the polling booth.”
Politically, the shooting could potentially be damaging for Trump “because many believe he has stoked the fires of political violence and division for political advantage, exacerbating polarization in America with incendiary rhetoric,” Panagopoulos said.
The incident could also “engender sympathy for Trump, who is clearly as vulnerable to political violence and extremism as anyone,” he continued.
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Shooting should be condemned by all
Jeremy Paul, a Northeastern University law professor, says the shooting was “shocking and should be condemned by people from every possible political party and political perspective.”
“Here’s the bottom line, the person who engaged in this shooting was very well aware that what he was doing was against the law,” he says.
“If there is going to be any legal implications immediately it will be on gun safety legislation, and whether some of members of Congress who have opposed any gun safety legislation might be moved by this attack to change their minds,” he says.
James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University professor of criminology, law and public policy, said the incident “will put gun violence as a major issue in [Trump’s] campaign.”
Fox, who presides over the Associated Press/USA TODAY/Northeastern University Mass Killings Database, the longest-running and most extensive data source on the subject, said he thinks the incident should make gun control a major campaign issue.
President Joe Biden addressed the country in the aftermath, strongly condemning “political violence.”
“Everyone must condemn it — everyone,” Biden said.
History of assassinations and attempts
President Ronald Reagan was the last U.S. president shot.
U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords and 18 others were shot during a constituent meeting held in a supermarket parking lot in Casas Adobes, Arizona, on Jan. 8, 2011. U.S. Rep. Steve Scalise, House majority whip, was among six people shot at the annual Congressional Baseball Game in Virginia on June 14, 2017.
Reagan was shot about two months after being sworn into office. While leaving the Hilton Hotel in Washington, D.C., on March 30, 1981, Reagan was shot by John Hinckley Jr. Hinckley fired a .22 caliber revolver with “devastator” bullets.
Reagan was struck under the left armpit when one of the bullets ricocheted off the limousine. Press Secretary James Brady, a Secret Service agent and police officer were also wounded. Reagan began to cough up blood and he was taken to George Washington University Hospital, where he spent 12 days recovering.
Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy was fatally shot by Sirhan Sirhan on June 5, 1968, while campaigning in Los Angeles. Kennedy had addressed supporters in the Ambassador Hotel’s Embassy Ballroom and while exiting the hotel through a kitchen hallway, he was mortally wounded by several shots fired by Sirhan. Kennedy died the next day.
President John F. Kennedy, Robert’s older brother, was assassinated five years earlier in Dallas, Texas. On Nov. 22, 1963, JFK was shot and killed as he rode in a motorcade in downtown Dallas.