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The whole world would lose in a full-blown war between Israel and Iran, Northeastern expert says after latest escalation

Pablo Calderon Martinez, an associate professor in politics and international relations at Northeastern, says it’s not Israel or Iran’s style to opt for “outright war.”

Iranian President looking at a missile being carried by a truck.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, center, looks at an Iranian missile while standing with the IRGC commanders during a parade this week. Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via AP

LONDON — Tensions between Israel and Iran ratched-up further overnight on Friday with Tel Aviv reportedly using drones and possibly a missile to attack Tehran.

The BBC, citing U.S. officials, said Israel had fired a missile into Iranian territory while Iran claimed its troops defended against an Israeli drone attack that targeted air defenses at a major air base and a nuclear site near the central city of Isfahan.

The assault is being seen as a retaliation for Tehran’s unprecedented drone-and-missile assault on Israel last week.

Since the news broke, Western leaders have clamored for a de-escalation in the fragile region, with fears over a wider conflict erupting in the Middle East.

Who would win in a conflict between Iran and Israel? Nobody. The whole world would lose.

Pablo Calderon Martinez, an associate professor in politics and international relations at Northeastern’s London campus

A Northeastern University expert has predicted that an “outright war” between rivals Tel Aviv and Tehran is unlikely due to its no-win outcome for both sides.

Pablo Calderon Martinez, an associate professor in politics and international relations based in London, said a wider conflict would likely leave hundreds of thousands of people dead.

While a wider conflict between Iran and Israel could not be ruled out, Martinez said it would be the result “of a severe miscalculation.”

“Who would win in a conflict between Iran and Israel? Nobody. The whole world would lose,” he said. “Israel has nuclear capabilities. We don’t think Iran has nuclear capabilities in terms of long-range nuclear missiles, but that does not mean they do not have the capacity to develop something like a dirty bomb. 

“And that could create serious damage around Israel, so I don’t think we’re going to see that escalation,” Martinez continued. “Why? Because it is the basic principle of math — everybody would lose.

“We are looking at potentially hundreds of thousands of casualties, so I don’t think it will escalate to that level.”

Hossein Dabbagh, an assistant professor in applied ethics at Northeastern, believes people in Iran are “terrified” about the future and are suffering “psychological trauma” about the damage and pain that a potential war could bring.

Dabbagh left Iran in 2010 to pursue his studies and career, but is still in daily contact with family and friends living under the authoritarian regime.

“When I heard the news, it was terrifying,” he said. “It was disturbing to think of my family, friends and community, that the conflict is now unraveling and that there might be some further consequences for the whole region, and particularly for Iran.”

“But those who are engaged with Iranian politics, with Middle East politics generally, we knew that this was coming. You could guess that this would happen some day.”

While the current conflict is, apart from a host of proxy battles, the first time Israel and Iran have squared up directly to each other, Dabbagh said the Islamic revolution in Iran in the late 1970s had put his country on a collision path.

“The whole constitution is built, designed and based on not recognising as Israel having a right to exist — they wanted from the beginning to have that kind of war or conflict with Israel directly and that is what is happening,” he added.

Friday’s strike is the latest development in the conflict between the two Middle East nations.

Iran launched a strike on Israel Saturday, deploying more than 300 drones and missiles at the country as part of a large-scale aerial attack.

Tehran’s response was an apparent response to an attack by Israel on an Iranian complex in Damascus, Syria, earlier this month.

The attacks come against the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas war, which was sparked by the Palestinian militant group’s deadly raids on Israel on Oct. 7.

In response, Israel has led an intense campaign against Hamas — a group that is known to have Iranian support — deploying bombs and other military incursions on the Gaza Strip in the name of eradicating the territory’s rulers.

Hamas has claimed that more 30,000 Palestinians have died in the six months since the war started.

During a press conference after a G7 meeting in Italy on Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken avoided questions about the reported strike on Iran but confirmed Washington “has not been involved in any offensive operations” in the region.

The U.K., China, Egypt and Turkey have all called for calm following the latest events.

Martinez said these diplomatic messages are likely to also be relayed through back channels to Tel Aviv.

“While Western allies are incredibly supportive of Israel, I do think behind the scenes, there will be calls to show restraint,” he said.

Martinez suggested that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have been playing to his domestic audience by choosing to exercise its military might and that he may have “felt they had to retaliate” after Iran’s attack six days ago.

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