What is the winter forecast for COVID-19? And should we expect a ‘tripledemic’ of COVID, flu and RSV?

Gloved hand putting a COVID-19 label on a vaccine.
Photo by Matthew Modoono/Northeastern University

The COVID-19 winter forecast is for relatively mild illness thanks to vaccination and natural immunity, health experts at Northeastern University say.

“We know that the majority of Americans have been vaccinated against COVID or had a natural infection or both. So even if you get a COVID infection, you should have a milder reaction,” says Mansoor Amiji, university distinguished professor of pharmaceutical sciences and chemical engineering.

“As we go toward the holiday season and we gather to celebrate different events and as the temperature starts to drop, it’s inevitable we’re going to see a spike in respiratory infections such as flu and COVID,” he says.

Headshot of Mansoor Amiji (left) and Neil Maniar (right).
(From left to right): Mansoor Amiji, university distinguished professor of pharmaceutical sciences and chemical engineering, and Neil Maniar, a professor of public health practice in the Bouvé College of Health Sciences, predict vaccination and natural immunity will make for a mild COVID season this winter. Photos by Matthew Modoono/Northeastern University

“But the good news in both cases, especially for those who have been fully vaccinated, is that even if they get the infection, it will be fairly mild,” Amiji says. “In terms of virulence, we’ve seen a decline.”

“I think we’re in a new place with COVID in the sense that we have effective vaccines and a clear vaccination schedule. We have the right tools,” says Neil Maniar, a professor of public health practice at Northeastern. 

“This is the sort of new normal that we will be in for the foreseeable future. We’re in a very different place with COVID compared to where we were even a year ago and definitely compared to two years ago,” Maniar says.

Meet the new variant, HV.1

Hospitalization rates for COVID-19 are low in all states except West Virginia and Hawaii, where the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says they are medium.

A variant called HV.1 is currently the most prevalent subvariant of COVID in the U.S., accounting for 29% of cases and surpassing Eris (EG.5), the dominant strain this summer.

Health experts say that while HV.1 is highly contagious, it appears to be relatively mild. Symptoms include cough, fatigue, runny nose and congestion.

The effectiveness of the new COVID-19 vaccine against HV.1 is unknown at this time, but health experts expect it to provide coverage since HV.1 is part of the Omicron family whose subvariant, XBB.1.5 was circulating this spring. The updated vaccine targets XBB.1.5, nicknamed Kraken. 

Will there be a ‘tripledemic’ this year?

Last year, COVID-19 infections ran into an early flu season and an unusual surge of respiratory infections in young children to create what some experts called a “tripledemic.”

A common respiratory infection that most children get by the age of 2, RSV is particularly dangerous for premature infants, babies younger than 6 months and children with health issues according to the CDC, which says RSV hospitalizes about 58,000 children under 5 years old every year in the U.S. 

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